Vancouver Canucks 2016-17 Point Predictions

For each player, I’ve listed three numbers. The first, Expected, is my actual prediction for how many points that player will get. Overachieve, on the other hand, is what I would consider an overachieving season for that player; a monster season, if you will. Finally, the Underachieve number is what I would consider a disappointing point total for that player.

NOTES: I only looked at players that I felt were relatively safe to make the NHL. For the purpose of these predictions, all players are expected to play a full 82 game season. The only exception is players that will be in and out of the lineup for reasons other than injury, so I’ve included notes about their Games Played totals in their write-ups. Also, I only predict in multiples of five!

 

FORWARDS

Henrik and Daniel Sedin- With the addition of Eriksson, it’s fair to expect a bit of an uptick in production from the Twins, but not much. Anything approaching PPG status would be a pleasant surprise.

Expected: 65, Overachieve: 80, Underachieve: 55

 

Loui Eriksson- If Eriksson clicks with the Sedins, there’s no reason to think his point totals will take a step back from last season. Sedin linemates always end up a few points behind the Twins.

Expected: 60, Overachieve: 80, Underachieve: 50

 

Bo Horvat- In my head, 50 points seemed like a breakout number for Horvat, but it’s really not, as he got 40 last year. Steady offensive progression is expected.

Expected: 50, Overachieve: 60, Underachieve: 35

 

Sven Baertschi- Baertschi’s success seems tied to Horvat’s, and their continued chemistry would mean good things for both players. This is more of a breakout number for Baertschi than Horvat.

Expected: 50, Overachieve: 60, Underachieve: 35

 

Jannik Hansen- Not everyone’s point totals can go up, and the Honey Badger seems poised to do some burrowing. Losing his spot with the Twins probably means Hansen goes back to his usual point totals.

Expected: 30, Overachieve: 45, Underachieve: 20

 

Brandon Sutter- Sutter is a hard one to call. His role in the lineup is unclear. He was on pace for about 40 points last year, but some of that came from playing alongside the Sedins, something he probably won’t do much of this year. Sutter may end up facing more defensive assignments this year in order to give Horvat more offensive opportunities, so a career average year sounds about right.

Expected: 35, Overachieve: 50, Underachieve: 20

 

Anton Rodin- The biggest wildcard on the roster, for sure. He will likely get an ample opportunity, but if he doesn’t belong in training camp he could be headed right back to Sweden. He has the largest range of expectations of any player.

Expected: 60 GP, 30 PTS, Overachieve: 80 GP, 55 PTS, Underachieve: CUT FROM TEAM

 

Jake Virtanen- I’m a believer in Jake Virtanen, but his waiver-status and Trevor Linden’s recent comments lead me to also believe that he’s destined for at least some time in Utica. He would be expected to contribute there almost right away, and hopefully earn his way back up by the quarter-season mark.

Expected: 60 GP, 25 PTS, Overachieve: 82 GP, 45 PTS, Underachieve: <30 GP, 10 PTS

 

Markus Granlund- Likely the 4th line center for most of the year. Not a lot of offensive opportunity there, but a good chance to pad his Games Played totals.

Expected: 80 GP, 20 PTS Overachieve: 80 GP, 30 PTS, Underachieve: <50 GP, 10 PTS

 

Brendan Gaunce- This is the year that we need to decide what we have in Brendan Gaunce, so he should get ample opportunity. Tough to know how much offense he can contribute to the NHL at this point.

Expected: 40 GP, 10 PTS, Overachieve: 80 GP, 25 PTS, Underachieve: CUT FROM TEAM

 

Derek Dorsett- With all the youth on the roster, Dorsett will likely play the entire year. Love him or hate him, he’ll make sure Virtanen and Tryamkin can throw their weight around without having to drop the mitts with the idiots of the league.

Expected: 80 GP, 20 PTS, Overachieve: 80 GP, 30 PTS Underachieve: <50 GP, 10 PTS

 

Emerson Etem- Etem is in direct competition with Brendan Gaunce. Etem may have the edge due to Gaunce’s ability to pass through waivers, but the team will not be afraid to cut him. Either way, he is losing plenty of ice-time to Alex Burrows throughout the year.

Expected: 40 GP, 15 PTS, Overachieve: 80 GP, 30 PTS, Underachieve: CUT FROM TEAM

 

Alex Burrows- Burrows will be sticking around, but how much he plays is questionable. If he stays healthy himself, injuries and his ability to play up and down the lineup will ensure he gets a decent amount of games in.

Expected: 60 GP, 15 PTS, Overachieve: 80 GP, 30 PTS, Underachieve: <40 GP, <10 PTS

 

DEFENSE

Alex Edler- A healthy year from Edler should mean around 40 points, but he’s been wildly inconsistent throughout his career. Age-wise, he’s still well within his prime.

Expected: 40, Overachieve: 50, Underachieve: 30

 

Ben Hutton- It’s probably not fair to expect Hutton to continue progressing at such a rapid rate, but the Canucks are hopeful that he can at least avoid the dreaded sophomore slump and maintain his production.

Expected: 30, Overachieve: 45, Underachieve: 20

 

Chris Tanev- This may finally be the year that Tanev breaks out offensively. This is probably my boldest prediction, but I think Tanev may even receive some powerplay time this year.

Expected: 30, Overachieve: 35, Underachieve: 15

 

Erik Gudbranson- Gudbranson is younger than Tanev, and may be a better candidate to breakout offensively, but I just don’t see it happening. He should be getting a lot of tough defensive assignments this year.

Expected: 15, Overachieve: 30, Underachieve: 5

 

Nikita Tryamkin- Who knows, with Tryamkin? Continuing to look like an NHL defenseman for a full season would be enough of a win. Offense can come later!

Expected: 10, Overachieve: 20, Underachieve: 5

 

Luca Sbisa- Chances are good that Sbisa will play the majority of the season, for better or for worse. Hard to say if he’ll bring more to the lineup at this point than Larsen or Pedan.

Expected: 15, Overachieve: 25, Underachieve: 5

 

Philip Larsen- Larsen and Pedan will inevitably get games due to injury, but which one goes in will probably depend on who’s injured and the opponent that night. Both have the potential to add some points, but Larsen has the higher offensive upside.

Expected: 40 GP, 15 PTS, Overachieve: 60 GP, 25 PTS Underachieve: CUT FROM TEAM

 

Andrey Pedan – Same deal for Pedan as with Larsen, but with less offensive upside. Still, Pedan wasn’t a slug at the AHL level, and displayed some pretty nifty skills from time to time.

Expected: 40 GP, 10 PTS, Overachieve: 60 GP, 15 PTS, Underachieve: CUT FROM TEAM

 

 

Conclusions: Nothing earth-shattering here, I know. At first glance, it looks like I’m predicting the Canucks offense to go way up next year, but remember, this isn’t factoring in injuries (except to say, for example, that Burrows will play a certain amount of games due as an injury replacement). Still, I don’t think a bit of a rise from the Canucks’ dismal 29th place finish in goals-scored last year is too much to expect, is it?

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